Apple’s Stock Trajectory Over the Next Three Years Amid Market Challenges

Apple (AAPL -0.16%) has long been regarded as a blue-chip stalwart, bolstered by its iconic brand, entrenched ecosystem, and robust capital returns. Yet, the stock's 51% gain over the past three years lags behind the S&P 500's 63% rise, reflecting investor concerns over iPhone sales stagnation, geopolitical trade tensions, and a muted AI strategy.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A -1.28%) (BRK.B -1.40%), despite maintaining Apple as its largest holding, has slashed its position by 57% since 2022. The tech giant's reliance on the iPhone—still 51% of fiscal 2025 revenue—highlights its vulnerability to hardware cycles, while services (26% of sales) and other products (23%) struggle to fully offset deceleration.

The path forward hinges on Apple's ability to reinvigorate innovation, particularly in AI, while navigating macroeconomic crosscurrents. With 1 billion paid subscriptions, its services arm offers a lifeline, but the next three years will test whether Apple can reclaim its growth Mantle or cede ground to nimbler rivals.